May 21


Market Commentary for May 20, 2020


May 21, 2020

Sideways Means Up (usually).

Today’s market went sideways, as expected.  So we are sitting in this range in the 15 Minute Chart betwen 24,400 and 24,800.  It’s a narrow 400 point range.  Hardly a smidge on the Dow’s valuation.  But it’s a really good thing that it has formed, because a breakout of either side should indicate where the market is going next.  I basically look at this as the “digestive phase” where the market accepts its gains but isn’t willing to bid share prices higher.  Rather, it wants to see what happens next in this cat and mouse game of pandemic recovery vs. the economy.

DJIA – 15 Minutes

In the Daily chart, we have a wide expanding range (which is in itself unstable) and a potential push to 26,000.  From my read of today’s actions I think the market is again getting cautious.  Nobody wants to be the last buyer, after all.  I really think those two levels – 24,400 and 24,800 are key to bullish or bearish sentiment.

DJIA – Daily

Commentary:  Clearly, there is still a lot of news in the market right now on both sides.  You know I am skeptical of recent rallies where the long term is concerned.  But the market can easily power through and move higher if it discounts the negative news enough, and if stimulus is high enough.  Obviously, it CAN go higher. When is the Day of Reckoning?  When it breaks 23,000 (down).  We have 24,400 –  which if broken will indicate short term weakness.. It’s then a question of degree – short term, small pullback or big break.  On the other side, a break of 24,800 up will tell us, “Have Patience. We are not selling off quite yet.” 

Ed Downs

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